Lingering Questions
#CountryBreakfast needs to put it all together for the Royals to be a force
As if we haven’t been doing this for years, with the calendar shifting from 2011 to 2012, it’s time to look ahead more than we look back. The 2012 season for the Royals is one of the most anticipated in recent memory and for good reason. For the first time in years, there’s something very real to look forward to in 2012. I think the Royals have a real shot to win the division in 2012. I don’t think they’re the favorite by any stretch of the imagination and I don’t even think they’re the favorite to finish second, but I do think we could be looking ahead to a very fun season. In past years, we’d look at the series of things that would have had to happen and any idiot could have told you they wouldn’t happen. Things like Emil Brown becoming a superstar simply don’t happen too terribly often just like the entire Twins organization in one plane crashing are pretty unlikely (Note: I don’t wish a plane crash upon anybody, just pointing out that’s what had to happen for the Royals to have a shot in past seasons).
Now, though, there are still a fair amount of questions, but every single one of them are reasonable and reasonable to happen together. If I was a betting man (and I am…who’s up for a casino run?), I wouldn’t put a large sum of money on the Royals to win the division, but for the first time since the early to mid 1990s, the chance actually exists, and that’s more than we’ve been lucky enough to experience as Royals fans in a long time. I think 2012 is going to be a very fun year. It’ll be great if…
…Eric Hosmer follows up his strong rookie showing with a step (or three) forward. His rookie season was fantastic. It was probably even good enough to be a solid line for him this season, but if the Royals are going to go places, they need somebody to step up and be an MVP caliber player. I suppose anybody could do it, but I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that nobody is better equipped than Hosmer to be a superstar. The Royals don’t have that one player who can put a team on their back for two weeks and Hosmer should be that guy soon. This doesn’t have to happen for the Royals to take the division, but a .300/.380/.530 season from Hosmer would go a long way toward adding some wins.
…Alex Gordon keeps up with his 2011. I guess it’s probably hypocritical that I keep talking about 2011 after mentioning it in the opening paragraph, but sometimes you have to look back to know what you’re looking for in the future. For the Royals to contend, Gordon needs to at least do as well in 2012 as he did in 2011. He played at a near MVP level last season and it certainly wouldn’t hurt the Royals to see that again from him. A .300/.370/.500 line would be huge and probably even more valuable than last season as Gordon continues to get more comfortable and better in left field defensively.
…Billy Butler’s power continues to develop. Last season, Butler hit .285/.373/.411 with seven homers and 42 runs batted in through his first 99 games before the Royals were in Boston and Butler started mashing. From that point forward, he hit .301/.342/.534 with 12 homers and 53 runs batted in. That was in 59 games. If we can somehow combine the plate discipline of Butler through the first 99 with the power and production in the last 53, we’d have the hitter everybody thought Butler would be when he came up. I know a certain commenter will bring up on base percentage and walks relative to the lineup if I don’t, so I’ll beat him to it and say that with Hosmer behind Butler, it’s harder for him to walk because pitchers don’t want to pitch to Hosmer. While I agree that plays a role, the very best hitters work their walks no matter who is in the lineup behind them and that’s the next and probably final stop for Butler to become a truly great hitter.
…one of the young pitchers steps forward and becomes a legitimate one or two starter. I think this is probably an if for most teams, but maybe none more than the Royals who have a potentially potent offense playing behind a potentially mediocre at best pitching staff. It’d be great if Jonathan Sanchez or even Felipe Paulino put it all together and became an ace, but the best case scenario is that they’d be joined by either Duffy or Montgomery or both. I like Luke Hochevar more than most, but I just don’t see him ever deveoping into the top of the rotation starter that the Royals hoped he would be. I think he’ll be very good, but I see him more as a number three and a damn good one moving forward. As you know if you follow me on Twitter, you know that I think Montgomery is primed for a HUGE season in 2012, so I see him as the guy with Duffy not too far behind. If he makes my prediction look intelligent, the Royals are prime for a big year.
…the bullpen is as good as it looks like it can be. On paper, I think the Royals bullpen is probably the best in the division and one of the best in the American League. Of course, paper is a funny thing and can tell some serious lies. If the Royals hold onto Joakim Soria and he’s their closer next year and he gets back to his old form, the bullpen has a chance to be fantastic. A lot of teams would see a guy like Louis Coleman and have annointed him a setup man or even a closer of the future at this point. On the Royals, he’s the sixth inning guy. There’s a lot of ifs in the bullpen, but so many options that I see this as one of the surest bets to happen of every possible scenario the Royals have.
I know it’s really easy to look at this roster on January 5 and be optimistic, but this is the first year that my optimism isn’t manufactured to make myself more excited about the upcoming season. Is it all likely to happen? No. But it is more likely to happen than at any other time in the last 15 or so seasons and that’s something to build on.
A programming note, check out Sam Mellinger’s blog today as I’ll be a part of a cool feature he has on there.
Follow me on Twitter @DBLesky!
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jscope122367
There is a good chance maier is just released and not even with the team when we break spring training. personally i would rather have dyson as our 4th outfielder. speed and def are plus-plus and Mitch isn’t in possession of any plus skill.
if yuni is our 2bagger i am really scared the season is going to be a wash and is the crack that begins to collapse our season. i will NEVER understand Dayton Moore’s love affair with this guy. that being said he was the better of almost all options out there. hint hint nobody ANY good was available to play the 3 positions as a back-up. if he gets less than 150 plate appearances we can be good with that.
Cain to me is the bigger risk. we can’t afford another weak link in the order offensive with escobar and i will say it and hope hope hope Im dear wrong but sal might be a spot we have to swallow offensive with the def he brings.
PercentageUK
“He was actually released from winterball because he played poorly down there”
Ooh! Do not like the sound of that! Cant say i was at all impressed in the last week of September either though of course thats a small sample size,as its just for fun can i be an awkward sausage & go with the following line up?
Gordon LF
Maier CF
Hosmer 1B
Butler DH
Moustakis 3B
Francour RF
Betancourt 2B
Perez C
Escobar SS
Greg Schaum
I really am not trying to big league you here- but that is not the case….he actually was released from winter ball because he played poorly there
He isn’t a leadoff hitter….sorry to be ramming this down your throat but I can’t be any more emphatic about this
DownUnderFan
Yost is the manager and it will be his decision, I agree. I just think that Gordon at lead-off is a waste of power and RBI ability (one less at bat per game – 20% of his AB over a season – with no one on to drive in).
We seem to forget that Gordon at #1 was an experiment born of necessity and think all the baseball Gods would agree that Alex’s strikeouts are way too high for a standard lead-off hitter.
Also, on Cain’s strikeouts, taking pitches and hole in his swing; I assume that is what he has been working on in the winter leagues based on his stats there. I do not pretend to have Ned’s ear but wonder if he sent Cain south to work on those very things so Ned has options of hitting Cain lead-off.
Greg Schaum
Difference is Gordon walks and takes pitches
Cain is neither selective or they type of guy that will draw a walk….he has a very long swing that needs to jump on pitches and this will not allow him to be selective
Not trying to trump you here at all…..but Ned Yost and the brass do not see Cain as a leadoff hitters either….if they did he would not have been batting where he did at Omaha
jscope122367
Down under
ill tell u what Ur comparison makes Gordon, a freaking major league hitter is what and Cain is just another PROSPECT at this point. u certainly do not want a hitter with a notorious hole in his swing along with being a rookie in the leadoff spot. Please don’t go with his cup of coffee with the brewers as comparison to Gordon experience and say he will be better than Gordon.
while i agree Gordon is not the prototype leadoff hitter for us he is our BEST option and as he showed last yr he will get rbi opportunity with the bottom of the order we have this yr if they produce as we expect them to.
Ease forget Cain as an option until we have a solid body of work to look at and see how he adjust’s when the pitchers make adjustments when they see him a few times over a few months. Absolutely no reason to rush the kid early.
DownUnderFan
“Lorenzo Cain would be an awful leadoff hitter…he is not a leadoff hitter.
He strikes out a ton and is better suited for the bottom third of a line up.”
Greg:
I do not pretend to be anywhere near as expert as you on the Royals but I do question your statement above. Let’s compare LC to AG:
Cain had 102 SO in 487 AB at Omaha with a 380 OBP. Okay that is AAA. But he also has 32 SO in 169 AB with a 343 OBP in the majors.
Gordon in 2011 had 139 SO in 611 AB with a 376 OBP. That means if Cain had the same number of AB as Gordon, he would have had 115 SO (majors) and 128 in AAA (both less than AG). And comparable OBP’s. Cain also had more SB per 100 at bats and comparable OPS numbers.
And that is against Gordon’s 2011 numbers which are almost all career bests. Cain beats Gordon in all previous years.
So if Cain is a terrible leadoff hitter, what does that make Alex Gordon?
Kyle
I really like Francoeur! haha. Should be Francoeur then Moustakas.
Kyle
When the Royals first got Cain, I thought he would be the lead-off answer. Then I saw how he was used in Omaha. Never lead off, mostly hit in the lower 3rd (occasionally 5/6). He will be a great bottom of the order hitter, but hopefully he can cut the strikeouts.
Gordon was a GREAT lead-off hitter last year. No need to mess with that. He will produce runs, b/c the bottom of the lineup will not be the blackhole it was last year. Cain will have a solid bat, and will be much more productive than Getz. Perez is going to be as good and hopefully much better than Treanor. Escobar isn’t going to hit .200 for the first 2-1/2 months of the season.
It won’t happen, but I like this lineup. A lot of RH in a row, but oh well.
Gordon LF
Butler DH
Hosmer 1B
Moustakas 3B
Francoeur RF
Giavotella 2B
Cain CF
Perez C
Escobar SS
More likely, and I’m okay with this also.
Gordon
Giavotella
Butler
Hosmer
Francoeur
Francoeur
Cain
Perez
Escobar
Greg Schaum
Lorenzo Cain would be an awful leadoff hitter…he is not a leadoff hitter.
He strikes out a ton and is better suited for the bottom third of a line up
DownUnderFan
Jim, regarding your lineup, I know it is not Yost’s favorite with lefty-righty but I would go the following:
1: Lorenzo Cain, CF
2: Johnny Giavotella, 2b
3: Alex Gordon, LF
4: Eric Hosmer, 1B
5: Billy Butler, DH
6: Mike Moustakas, 3B
7: Jeff Francoeur, RF
8: Savior Perez, C
9: Alcides Escobar, SS
I agree that Hosmer needs to bat in front of Billy and Moose behind him. But I think Alex at number 3 is the better answer. He was an experiment at lead off only because the Royals had no other option. But at #3 he will get 100 RBIs easily with Cain and Gia in front of him, and gives a LH bat and speed with runners on in the first.
Billy is not as good at #4 but think he will be perfect at #5 protecting Hos.
DownUnderFan
A couple of interesting points with Billy Butler in the last 60 games.
Look at how many of those games were on the road versus at home. The Royals played 14 more games at home in the first half than second half. The K is much more suited to Billy’s line drive style than his HR swing and I think that contributed majorly to his second half HR power (more games away).
Also check the number of walks Billy got in 2nd half versus 1st half. They dropped from 49 before the AS break to 17 after. That if nothing else is the biggest proof that something in Billy changed in the second half.
Drew Osborne
The thing I’m worried about MOST is the infamous SOPHOMORE SLUMP. Who does it happen too?
PercentageUK
Jim-Yeah i think your bang on with that line up,though knowing the love affair the front office & Yost has with Yuni i can see him taking over 2B quite quicky in the season.
The thing is with that list of players is that they ALL have a tendency to go AWOL with the bat for quite long periods of time in baseball terms at some part of the season & if too many do it at the same time,were in trouble!
I expect Yuni to have his bat involved early (probably taking over late in games & getting all the day games)in order to be sharp & counteract against this possibility with some proven power!
jim fetterolf
I think that the Royals success this year will rest on players other than the usual suspects, whom, assuming good health, should produce pretty much around what they did last year. For the Royals to sniff 90 wins this coming season: Moose will need to continue his second half surge and put up an old school .280/20/80, new school .350/.450/.800 year to spread the threat through the line up and provide protection for the RH batter ahead of him, I think Billy.
Johnny Giavotella will need to play at least average 2B and get on base, as I see him as the initial #2 hitter. He won’t walk a lot, but at 5’8 will walk more than the much taller Lo Cain. He’ll be replacing Melky in the order and it’s unreasonable to expect him to equal Cabrera’s production, but a .320 OBP with fairly low strike outs, the ability to advance runners, and a little SLG will be a key for the year.
Lorenzo Cain, starting out batting 7th, needs a good season. We can assume his glove and legs an upgrade, but .280 with some power and lots of steals sets the table for Perez and Gordon and pretty much eliminates any possibility of a “soft” inning for opposing pitchers. I expect Seitzer to shorten up his swing a little and work to cut down on the Ks.
My projected line-up is:
1: Alex Gordon, LF
2: Johnny Giavotella, 2b
3: Eric Hosmer, 1B
4: Billy Butler, DH
5: Mike Moustakas, 3B
6: Jeff Francoeur, RF
7: Lorenzo Cain, CF
8: Savior Perez, C
9: Alcides Escobar, SS