Friday Notes
When I came to you last week, I was in Phoenix and talking about the game I had seen the day before, which was the Royals first loss of the spring. Somehow it’s warmer today in Kansas City than it was last Friday in Phoenix. The Royals have moved to 15-2 on the spring and are slowly gaining believers among the national media in spite of the irrelevance in spring training. But that kind of makes sense because it’s not so much that the Royals are winning, but the manner in which they are doing it. They have a run differential of +54 through 18 games (don’t forget the one tie). That means in the average game this spring that they are three runs better than their opponents. I do think it’s pretty amazing that I saw 35% of the runs allowed by the team this spring in just 17% of the games. I also saw 26% of the runs scored, so at least I have that going for me.
- I probably should write a whole article about this, but I’m shocked about the Royals decision to move Luke Hochevar to the bullpen. It’s probably not the exact right move because I personally don’t think Hochevar is worth a roster spot at all, but it’s a step in the right direction and, I think, signals a very clear shift in some of the thinking of the organization. They have been so hesitant to walk away from players that even a small move like shifting Hochevar to the bullpen is a very good sign for us as fans. My pipe dream here is that some team has told the Royals they like Hochevar as a reliever, but wanted to see it before they were willing to give up a player for him. A guy can dream, right?
- Hochevar’s demotion to the bullpen means the fifth starter job is now between Luis Mendoza and Bruce Chen. The Royals are saying Will Smith is involved in the battle, and I think his chances are far better than they were originally, but he’s still quite the long shot. The longest of long shots is  Yordano Ventura who I saw last week and looked fantastic. Still, he hasn’t even thrown 30 innings in AA and there are clearly issues he needs to work on before he can become an impact starter, which I think he’ll be. I’m all for letting him stay in big league camp and getting him work with the Major League squad, but he needs to be in the minors for at least 10-12 starts in 2013 before the Royals bring him up. And the only way I’d even bring him up that quickly is if he’s absolutely dominating and his change-up has made it to at least average on a consistent basis.
- I’m not the only one in this boat, but I’m worried about Eric Hosmer. Clint and I talked about it on the podcast, and the way he’s looked in the WBC is eerily reminiscent of what we saw through most of the 2012 season. At this point, the numbers don’t mean anything to me, but he continues to struggle with the inside pitch, which is usually a money pitch for a left-handed batter. I watched pitchers pound him inside one game in particular, and he just couldn’t hit it. I might be overreacting from a few games, but after seeing the same thing for the majority of the second half last year, it just looked all too familiar. For the first time, I worry that Hosmer isn’t going to reach his immense potential. I still am optimistic about him, but there’s doubt in my head.
- One thing I’ve noticed about the second base battle is that every time Johnny Giavotella does something well, Chris Getz comes back and matches him. And every time Chris Getz does something well, Johnny Giavotella matches him. Gio has five more runs batted in than Getz and Getz has five more runs scored than Gio. Getz has the one home run while Gio does not have a homer yet, but I don’t think that’s likely to happen again, though Getz did look pretty good in the limited at bats I saw of his. For the Royals, it comes down to the fact that they prefer Getz to Giavotella for the defense, and Gio has to outhit Getz significantly for the Royals to award him the job. Unless Giavotella really steps up in the last couple weeks of spring, I think he’s going to be back at Omaha and will tear up the Pacific Coast League again.
- One guy who I didn’t really talk much about on my trip was Alex Gordon, and that’s partially because he didn’t play one of the three games I saw, but what I did see looked fantastic. He’s always in the best shape of his life, but this year he just seems to be hitting the ball even harder. I mentioned a few weeks back about how a friend mentioned he thinks this could be Gordon’s best year, and I agreed with that. Now I really, really agree and I think we could see a monster year from Gordon. It’ll cause a lot of arguments about where he should hit in the lineup, but I’d love to have that talk because he’s hitting so well and not because the Royals don’t have a number three hitter.
- One thing to keep in mind as spring training begins to wind down is that it’s a Dayton Moore staple to make a move toward the end of spring. In the past, the roster hadn’t been quite so set, so that may change, but it’s just something to keep an eye out for here in about two weeks. I think it’s safe to say Humberto Quintero won’t be on the acquisition list, so we can rest easy about that.
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DownUnderFan
David. Fair enough comment on Mendoza being held out to rest him.
Now that Smith, Ventura and Chen have all struggled in their attempts to lock in the #5 spot, will be interesting to see how Mendoza fairs tomorrow. And whether Yost will even consider changing his mind if he does well.
My comment was probably slanted based on my view that Ned does not like Mendoza and does nothing to support him (backed up by Ned’s comments every time Mendoza pitched last year and his constant belief that Mendoza is no starter).
Will wait until tomorrow is over and see where the chips fall after Mendoza’s start.
DownUnderFan
Hochevar is listed as one of the worst starters ever, but that does not make him the worst pitcher ever, will agree with Jim F on that.
I stand by my October prediction that Hochevar will find a home in the bullpen. Whether he gets traded will depend on how well he does the next two weeks and if someone is willing to take at least a chunk of his salary this year.
My biggest question is still…who made the ultimate decision and why now. It was made even before Smith, Chen or Ventura’s next start and before Mendoza as well. While the decision was the right one, the timing just seemed strange.
jim fetterolf
David, again it’s a matter of apparent depth and some questions being answered, maybe the most important one being Santana’s velocity. He was sitting 88-89 at the end of last year, up to 93-94 sometimes now. That just makes Luke more expendable and now I expect him to be traded, either in the next two weeks, or traded or possibly released at the ASB as it is his walk year and things are getting crowded.
As for “worst pitcher”, ever notice how the only time young folks think ERA is a valid stat is when talking about Hoch and Kyle? Always been a problem with Hoch, his stuff and peripherals say one thing, his ERA another while his occasional dominant performance suggests a ceiling that not a lot of pitchers have. Some GM has a pitching coach who is sure that he can fix Luke and that will be best for all concerned, Hochevar gets another chance, the Royals get a roster spot and some salary relief, the fans get to look forward to Yordano Ventura and the TJS rehabbers.
As for “hindsight”, everyone thought it was terrible, except Dayton Moore, who was conscious of the issues I raised above and wasn’t certain that Hochevar would be battling for the 5th spot. A lot of things clicked to move Luke to the ‘pen now, not all were predictable then. Ventura has been a pleasant surprise and is pushing the envelope, Will Smith looks to have taken a step up, Santana has his heater, Guthrie resigned. Yeah, tendering Luke now would be a mistake, then I agreed with it.
Appreciate the effort you guys bring. Thanks.
DownUnderFan
One more BTW. Did you see the headline on MLBTradeRumors on Hochevar. This is the best heading of the spring…
Royals Have High Asking Price On Luke Hochevar
Moore must have a serious poker face.
David Lesky
I don’t think Mendoza’s workload tells us anything. There’s a lot of arms that need work and he’s the one who has thrown more innings than anybody with his work in winter ball. They’re backing off him a little to give him some time off to avoid that dead arm.
DownUnderFan
By the way, I also believe there is still a late spring move in the cards for Moore. And I still believe it will be with Colorado for Blackmon. With Hochevar’s move to the pen, I am even more sure that Mendoza will be the tradee. Supporting evidence comes from the fact he will not pitch until Sunday despite being back for almost a week. Also helps that Coleman, Wheeler, Bueno, Joseph and Adcock are all having good springs as well to backup the bullpen.
I also believe Chen will be in the pen to start the season. Thought Smith would be the 5th starter until today. Now will wait and see how Ventura handles himself the next two weeks. Both faltering may be the only thing that keeps Mendoza around.
DownUnderFan
David:
Good article as always. Some comments for you.
Must admit, I was also shocked on Hochevar. I was convinced he would make 6 starts before any move. Still think the bullpen is a good move though. Hochevar fits the description of some pitchers described by Jim Morris in his book The Oldest Rookie. Bottom line, any move is better than no move and proves the Royals are really committed to winning this year.
BTW, the one question I would love to hear answered is who actually made the decision, Moore or Yost. My belief is Moore was the one demanding that Hochevar stay in the rotation and Yost finally said NO.
2nd BTW, apparently the pressure of suddenly being in the 5th spot mix is getting to Smith. 5 runs in 3 innings so far today.
On Hosmer, I have been worried since last year. His answers to questions earlier this spring did not make me feel any better. Hosmer’s problem is not talent. It is his head and unwillingness to be coached. Actually his defense is a good indicator of his unwillingness to learn. Saw one of the WBC games and he was still ole’ing at balls and pulling his foot early.Those are defensive basics that should have been broken out of him long ago. My solution is to open the season with Ramirez on the bench instead of Tejada. Can use Max for PH against the NL teams and offers a DH/1st platoon option if Hosmer does not hit.
I agree that Getz will most likely be the starter come April. But Gia is actually playing better. No one noticed that Getz is something like 4 – 18 since his HR and 3 of those hits came in 1 game.
My biggest question right now is why is Yost not considering platooning Francoeur and Lough in RF to start the season. Even if Lough hits half of what he is doing in spring training, that is still an improvement on what Jeff is showing right now.
Finally, I agree this will be Gordon’s career year. No worries about spot in the order or contract negotiations. Gordon has been free to prepare for the season and I think he will have a much faster start than the last two years which will build into a 300 plus average, 20 HR and 90 RBI year.
David Lesky
Jim,
As always, thanks for reading and thanks for sharing your insights.
The reason I and most others are surprised is because the Royals have been very hesitant to walk away from mistakes in the past. When you consider the comments made about Hochevar early in the spring, it’s a surprising move for them to demote him. I don’t think anybody outside the organization thought he was the best choice to be the fifth starter, so “the rest of us” includes pretty much everybody.
Tendering one of the worst pitchers in history is not hindsight either. I didn’t like the move when it happened and neither did most people. The criticism of that move is not hindsight.
jim fetterolf
Lots of folks seem shocked by Hochevar’s demotion, but the rest of us looked at depth and performance and some even suggested the move last summer, so life goes on.
As for the 5th starter, that probably rides as much on any trade of one or two of Chen, Hoch, and Mendoza. Will Smith is the obvious best choice for the spot, being a lefty with a nice spring, so just a matter of moving some bodies around. Mendoza has the most value of the three to a receiving team, Hoch and Chen being expensive and in walk years add the most value to the Royals by subtraction. Should be interesting.
As for Hochevar and a roster spot, now he probably won’t have one for long, at the time he was tendered we had a rotation with Shields perhaps breaking down according to one writer, Santana having a terrible ’12 with red injury flags due to velocity drop, Guthrie being over a merely average hill based on Colorado, and Wade Davis trying to transition back to the rotation after a career as a mediocre starter. Things have clarified a little and will become clearer over the next few weeks. We’re all geniuses with hindsight.