The Roster Crunch – Rule 5 and the Royals
It is August 21st 2012, Wil Myers currently leads the minor leagues in home runs with 34 and has put up a combined batting average in the neighborhood of .313 with a .390 on base percentage. ¬†The future right fielder has dominated the minors while the Kansas City Royals current right fielder, Jeff Franceour, has struggled mightily. ¬†Why isn’t he up? ¬†The answer may be as simple as the Royals are feeling a roster crunch due to the Rule V draft and the fact that they’ve got to add quite a few players prior to the Winter meetings.
Players are eligible for selection in the Rule V draft who are not on their major league organization’s 40-man roster¬†and:
‚Äď were signed at age 19 or older and have been in the organization for four years;¬†or
‚Äď were signed at age 18 or younger and have been in the organization for five years.
Before we get to the roster breakdown lets take a look at the players that would be first year eligible for the Rule V draft in the Royals organization. ¬†I have taken the liberty to cross out the players I don’t believe Kansas City feels they must protect.
2008 Draftees currently in the org
1st Suppl. Mike Montgomery
3rd Round Pick Tyler Sample¬†- currently struggling with a 5.68 ERA in Wilmington
4th Rd Tim Melville¬† – has never got his feet under him past Single A ball
5th Rd John Lamb
6th Rd Alex Llanos¬† – playing at single A Kane County
8th Rd Malcom Culver - pitching at single A Kane County
12th Rd Allen Caldwell – Injured
18th Rd Carlo Testa¬† – .787 OPS at AA NW Arkansas
28th Rd Greg Billo – Injured¬†
Drafted by Brewers Jake Odorizzi
Drafted by the Red J.C. Sulbaran
2009 Draftees – College
4th Rd Chris Dwyer – Clemson
18th Rd Brendan Lafferty – UCLA¬† – 5.09 ERA at AA
20th Rd Patrick Keating – Florida – struggling to stay healthy 3.93 ERA at AA
22nd Rd Ryan Dennick – Tennessee Tech¬† – lefty reliever 4.48 ERA at AA
42nd Red Jon Keck – Bethel (Ten)¬† – lefty reliever 3.67 ERA at AA
Drafted by Cincinnati Reds Donnie Joseph
2008 and earlier International Signees
Robinson Yambati signed 2008
Angel Baez signed 2008
Aroni Nina signed 2008 just now reached Rookie ball
Julio Rodriguez signed by Tigers 2008¬† – .552 OPS in AA
Rey Navarro signes by Diamondbacks 2007 – Falu and Abreu’s emergence leave him as extra
Sugar Ray Marimon signed 2006 – I like Marimon but if teams were interested they likely would’ve popped him prior to last season.
I listed just a few of the most interesting international signees.
Vin Mazzaro, Adam Moore, Clint Robinson, Jason Bourgeois, Derrick Robinson and David Lough are the names I could take off the list just in a first run through. The Royals currently have five players on the 60 day DL giving them 42 players on the current 40 man roster. ¬†These six eliminations mean I only have four roster spots open to get to 40.
GUARANTEED 40 man Spots
These are the four if I were general manager are no brain locks that I need to free up space for. ¬†Odorizzi is a no brainer and should be added this September and given a couple starts to see if he can set up a competition in the spring. ¬†In fact I understand Omaha is in a playoff push but I would call him up tomorrow and see what he can do at the major league level, AAA titles just aren’t that important. ¬†As for Joseph and Sulbaran the Royals just acquired these two and despite a difficult start should be given sometime in the org before you set one free.
With my current roster at 40 I would like to eliminate the following:
Noel Arguelles – despite giving him $7m in a contract he’s never pitched like KC had hoped. (39)
I believe there are a couple more fringe prospects that I don’t want to sacrifice just yet. ¬†For me at this moment there are two additional pitchers that I would not want to risk losing.
Robinson Yambati – Big armed Dominican signee has righted the ship and could be a quick mover in the bullpen or given a spot back in the rotation to see if that can be salvaged.
Mike Montgomery – I want a complete fall and winter of working with Knapp before giving up on the former supplemental first round pick (41)
I need to eliminate one more spot but on top of that I would like to free up an extra roster spot for free agency, acquisition of a Rule 5 pick of my own or a possible 2 for 1 trade.
The final two to get the cut in this scenario are Francisley Bueno, Tommy Hottovy.
That finishes off my roster at 39 which is a number GMDM has liked when heading into the Winter Meetings.
Most likely Royals prospect to get chosen:
Chris Dwyer – A lefty with a major league curveball, Dwyer could survive in short stints in a similar fashion to Nate Adcock a couple of years ago while allowing a pitching coach to try to work some magic to refine his control.
Angel Baez – How often do you get a chance to grab a right-hander throwing 94-98 while flashing a change up from a low 3/4 arm slot? ¬†That screams reliever despite only reaching the A ball level a team like the Astros devoid of talent at both the major league and minor league level could give Baez a opportunity to survive out of their bullpen. ¬†If it doesn’t work the team could just return him to Kansas City at a small fee.
After all is said and done I’m at 39 looking for a spot to get Wil Myers on roster when I need. ¬†Sorry Nate Adcock you are the final cut to get Myers on the roster.
Final 40 Man
Bruce Chen, Louis Coleman, Tim Collins, Aaron Crow, Danny Duffy, Jeremy Guthrie, Kelvin Herrera, Luke Hochevar, Greg Holland, Jeremy Jeffress, Luis Mendoza, Felipe Paulino, Will Smith, Joakim Soria, Everett Teaford, Ryan Verdugo, Blake Wood, Jake Odorizzi, Yordano Ventura, Donnie Joseph, John Lamb, JC Sulbaran, Mike Montgomery, Robinson Yambati
Brayan Pena, Sal Perez, Manny Pina
Tony Abreu, Billy Butler, Alcides Escobar, Irving Falu, Chris Getz, Johnny Giavotella, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas
Lorenzo Cain, Jarrod Dyson, Jeff Franceour, Alex Gordon and Wil Myers
This allows them to add Wil Myers for opening day IF the Royals stand pat with the roster.
That’s my list. ¬†What is yours? ¬†Hit me up via Twitter @ClintScoles or discuss more on our minor league forum.
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